You're already aware that I'm no fan of some Republicans' counter-productive and unrealistic public fantasies about a very late entry into the presidential field, possibly forcing a brokered convention.  Sadly, it appears the din isn't going to dissipate any time soon, thanks to statements from public officials and unrelenting news media buzz.  Former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour -- who decided against a presidential bid of his own early on in the cycle -- mused about the "outside chance" of a contested convention in an interview with NRO, suggesting that Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels could still be nominated under the right circumstances:
 

Barbour is aware of the clamor in certain circles for his friend Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels to enter the fray. Once again, “It is highly unlikely but it could happen,” he says. “It is certainly more of a possibility than ever in the past. However, in the past, the possibility was zero, so to say the odds are higher than zero is not something that, I think, you’re going to want to bet on."  Daniels says he will not reconsider. But should he? “I would have liked it if he had run. He decided not to. That was his decision,” Barbour says. “I’m not going to get in the business of telling any friend of mine, ‘This is what you ought to do.’ I’m not going to do it publicly or privately. And I haven’t done it, publicly or privately.”

In Barbour's defense, it looks as though reporter Bob Costa pressed him on this remote possibility, so he wasn't proactively offering unsolicited thoughts on the issue. Nevertheless, it promulgates the meme.  Sure enough, national pollster Quinnipiac is now running surveys asking Republican voters which substitute nominee they might like to see emerge from a potential brokered convention:
 

But if the GOP convention picks a new candidate, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the top choice of Republicans, with 32 percent, followed by former governors Sarah Palin of Alaska and Jeb Bush of Florida with 20 percent each and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels with 15 percent…“Gov. Chris Christie remains the knight on the white horse in many Republican minds,” Brown said.

This is just absurd.  Chris Christie has done everything he possibly can to convince anyone who will listen that he will not run for president in 2012.  Nothing has changed for him, and the same applies to Daniels.  Jeb Bush has also categorically denied a presidential run, and has a surname issue to boot.  And although I'm not entirely sure what's motivating Palin's recent conspicuous stoking of the brokered convention fire, voters will recall that she chose not to run.  Plus, can anyone envision a contingency in which she, of all people, manages to prevail in this already-mythical convention?  Even as her favorable numbers crept up last fall, a supermajority of Republicans said they didn't want her to get into the race.  I fail to see how she could claim the mantle of a consensus candidate.  Then again, this entire discussion is academic because there very simply will not be a brokered convention.   "Then why do you keep writing about it?" you may ask.  Fair question.  I'm thinking about ignoring this entire distraction from here on out, but because it's been getting wide coverage in the press (often presented with an "isn't this exciting?" tone), I felt compelled to explain why the whole enterprise merely (a) indulges a media fetish -- they're obsessed with recapturing the drama of old -- and (b) boosts Obama's re-election chances by  running down the current (read: only) Republican field.

Among young women below age 30, new government figures show a clear majority of births—53 percent—now occurring outside of marriage. Since 1970, out-of-wedlock birthrates for blacks have tripled—to 73 percent—while the rate for whites went up ten-fold, to 29 percent.

Even the New York Times recognizes the disastrous impact of such numbers, since children of single mothers fail more frequently in school, while engaging more regularly in criminal, self-destructive behavior. Liberal analysts say financial hardships make non-marital births more likely, but out-of-wedlock births also make those financial hardships more likely.

Only 8 percent of college graduates give birth outside marriage—indicating that the same qualities of self-discipline and long-term planning that enable women to achieve educational success also help them avoid bringing babies into the world without a marriage to nourish them.

I posted an extensive analysis of recent polling trends yesterday, so I'll keep this one relatively short.  A new NBC/Marist poll shows Mitt Romney leading comfortably in Arizona ahead of tonight's debate ("the Ash Clash?"), while Michigan remains a jump ball:
 

In Michigan – which has turned into a make-or-break contest for Romney – the former Massachusetts governor gets the support of 37 percent of likely GOP primary voters, including those who are leaning toward a particular candidate. Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, gets 35 percent, and he’s followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 13 percent and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 8 percent.  But in Arizona, Romney is on safer ground: He receives the support of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters, Santorum gets 27 percent, Gingrich 16 percent and Paul 11 percent.

Michigan remains very rocky general election territory for the GOP, as Obama holds wide leads over all possible challengers:
 

Turning to the general-election race in November, Obama leads Romney in Michigan by nearly 20 points among registered voters, 51 to 33 percent, with 15 percent undecided. Against Paul, the president’s lead is 22 points (53 to 31 percent); against Santorum, it’s 26 points (55 to 29 percent); and against Gingrich, it’s 28 points (56 to 28 percent)...But Arizona is tougher territory for the president, whose approval rating among registered voters in the state is just 38 percent.

Marist's numbers show every GOP candidate leading Obama in the Grand Canyon State, except for Newt Gingrich.  A similar dynamic applies to down-ticket Senate races.  In Michigan, incumbent Democrat Sen. Debbie Stabenow holds a big advantage over Republican Pete Hoekstra, who is still recovering from a Super Bowl ad that some described as racially insensitive.  Michigan voters weren't impressed.  Out in the desert, likely Republican Senate nominee Rep. Jeff Flake bests his closest Democrat opponent by double-digits. 

White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett told a group of college students today that unemployment stimulates the economy.

 

 

Sound familiar? Nancy Pelosi feels the same way.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Wednesday strongly defended her party's support of the federal food stamp program - a day after former Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich argued that GOP candidates should use the growing number of people on food stamps against Democrats on the campaign trail.

At a press conference in her home town of San Francisco, Pelosi explained that the program's multiplier effect –the amount of money generated in the local economy as the result of the subsidy– far exceeds the nearly $60 billion spent this year by the federal government and is a sure-fire way to stimulate the economy. For every dollar a person receives in food stamps, Pelosi said that $1.79 is put back into the economy. The U.S. Department of Agriculture cites an even higher figure of $1.84.

"It is the biggest bang for the buck when you do food stamps and unemployment insurance. The biggest bang for the buck," she said.

Despite Pelosi's and Jarrett's claims, unemployment doesn't stimulate the economy, but unemployment does stimulate voters.

An so it begins. A bill proposed by the Washington State legislature would require all insurance plans that cover maternity care to also cover abortions. The silver lining (if there is one) is an opt-out option for people morally opposed  to abortion.

The state is looking to set new precedent: It could soon become the first state to require all health plans to cover abortion.

House Bill 2330 would require all health plans that offer maternity care to also provide coverage for terminating a pregnancy, with a conscience exemption for those that may have a religious objection to such coverage.

The law, currently pending in the Washington State Senate, would kick in this summer.

Think ObamaCare doesn't fund abortion? Think again.

The legislation grew out of concerns over the structure of the federal health reform law. In order to ensure no federal funds get spent on abortion, the Affordable Care Act set up special accounting rules for insurance plans that cover the procedure and receive federal insurance subsidies.

Or in other words, the plans with abortion coverage, still receive federal subsidies a.k.a. taxpayer money.

BuzzFeed has them here.  Admittedly, they do help dispel the myth that Mitt Romney's hair never, never gets messed up.

I second her statement.

Millions of Catholics and other Christians worldwide are observing Ash Wednesday today, marking the beginning of Lent.  For many, this practice entails attending Mass and having black ashes imposed on the forehead in the shape of a cross.  Traditionally, the faithful display the ashes until they wear off, although there aren't strict guidelines.  Two Republican presidential candidates -- Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich -- are practicing Catholics; both will participate in the final pre-Super Tuesday debate in Arizona later this evening.  It's conceivable that half of the candidates on stage will be wearing ashes, which could have implications beyond representing simple, public expressions of faith.  All four Republican candidates have excoriated the Obama administration's recent unconstitutional affront to religious liberty, an ongoing battle in which the Catholic Church is on the front lines.  The topic of Obama's anti-conscience mandate is likely to arise during tonight's proceedings, and the optics of up to half of the GOP field articulating fierce opposition to the president's decision while wearing a cross of ashes could be a rather powerful witness. 

Rick Santorum's campaign has also been grappling with how to respond to a video that surfaced yesterday, showing the former Senator describing a contemporary "spiritual war" in which Satan is intent on "attack[ing] our institutions."  Santorum's comments came during a 2008 speech at Florida's Ave Maria University.  (For a thoughtful, non-hysterical take on why some of these remarks are problematic, read this post from Forbes' Josh Barro).  Much of the debate surrounding the possibility of a Santorum nomination has centered on whether the candidate is overly theological in his worldview, and how that might impact his electoral prospects and/or potential presidency.  If he wears ashes tonight, the resulting images are destined to feature prominently in future media coverage of the intersection of Santorum's faith and political agenda.  An interesting consideration in today's media-saturated political climate.

I've reached out to both the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns to ask about this.  For what it's worth, Team Newt has informed me that Gingrich isn't planning on attending Mass today -- which the candidate has confirmed, (correctly) pointing out that it's "not a holy day of obligation."  The Santorum campaign has not responded to my inquiry, although my colleague Ed Morrissey says his source within Santorum's camp has "no idea" what the former Senator's plans are in this regard.  I'll leave you with two clips.  The first was flagged by our own Kevin Glass, who had a chuckle at two British news anchors' puzzlement over Vice President Joe Biden's ashes two years ago.  "What's happened to his head?"
 

It's worth noting that Biden, a Catholic, was one of the voices inside the White House warning against the mandate.  He was overruled. Finally, here's the Heritage Foundation's video on the topic, featuring commentary from policy experts, lawmakers, and serious thinkers on religion and ethics:
 

Heritage provocatively calls the new policy's assault on religious liberty "Obamacare's first casualty."  Indeed.  Last week, I attempted to explain the disparate polling and political framing on this controversy.  CNN offers a newer data point, which mirrors Rasmussen's finding that a majority Americans oppose the mandate.

UPDATE - Santorum is campaigning with ash on his forehead in Arizona today, so I'd  imagine the marking will stay for the debate.